最新熱門關鍵字:    管理  成功  創意  
單期簡介
投資理財
NO.655
巴菲特60年不敗的投資原則
摩根資產管理公司的研究分析師傑瑞米.C.米勒深入探討華倫.巴菲特在1950及1960年代寫給合夥投資人的書信,發現巴菲特60年來從未改變價值導向的基本準則。
2018-01-17 /  6041  14
輕鬆聽大師
媒體創意人 俞國定導讀
收藏本期
 網路版長訂優惠


目 錄 導 讀 付費內容 延伸閱讀

Chapter 1

合夥事業簡介

感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

華倫.巴菲特成立第一個合夥事業時,便非常清楚而且坦誠他想做的事。提到投資時,就是應該知道並且確實搞懂你究竟想做什麼事。


感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

Chapter 1

Introduction to the partnership

感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

When Warren Buffett set up his first partnership, he was very clear and up-front about what he planned to do. When it comes to investing, it pays to know and clarify exactly what you're trying to achieve.


感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

關鍵思惟


「投機既不違法,也無關道德,但也不會使荷包變厚。」──班傑明.葛拉漢感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「如果你無法正確預測,就經常預測。」──約翰.梅納德.凱因斯,20世紀英國經濟學家感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

Key Thoughts


"Speculation is neither illegal, immoral nor fattening (financially)." – Benjamin Graham感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"If you can't forecast well, forecast often." – John Maynard Keynes感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

1
華倫.巴菲特和他的原始夥伴分享的「基本準則」如下:感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
1
The "Ground Rules" which Warren Buffett shared with his original partners were:感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

1 沒理由對合作夥伴,保證任何報酬率。每月提領1%資金一半的合作夥伴就是在做這件事──提款。如果我們經過若干年後,每年盈餘超過6%,提領的資金將可以被收益彌補,本金就會增加。如果我們賺不到6%,每月支付的費用有一部分或全部便是資本報酬。

2 若有任何一年未能達到至少增加6%的績效,接下來一年每個月收到款項的合作夥伴,將發覺這些金額會變少。

3 每當談到年度損益時,我們談論的是市場價值;亦即我們對資產在年底時的市場估值,對上我們年初時在同樣基礎上對資產的看法。這可能與某一年度報繳的已實現損益關係很小。

4 無論我們表現得好不好都不能用來評量我們在這一年是賺錢還是虧損。相反的,是要根據道瓊工業平均指數反映的股市大盤,以及主要投資公司的表現等為基準進行衡量。如果我們的記錄比這些基準更好,那麼無論我們是賺錢還是虧損,我們都可以把它當作好年。如果我們做得比較差,當然只配啃番茄。

5 雖然我比較喜歡5年檢測一次,但我覺得3年絕對是評估績效的最低期限。我們肯定會有若干年,合夥事業的績效會很差,而且基本上比道瓊還差。如果任何3年或更長的時間的成績都不好,我們就應該開始另闢蹊徑把錢賺回來。除非那3年當中包含了牛市的投機性炒作。

6 我不是在從事預測一般股市或商業波動的工作。如果你認為我可以做到這一點,或是認為這對投資計畫至關重要,那麼你就不應該加入這個合夥事業。

7 我不能向合作夥伴承諾結果。我可以做到且承諾的是:
a. 我們的投資將根據價值而定,而不是受歡迎的程度;
b. 在每一次承諾,以及各種承諾中,我們將努力爭取較大的安全邊際,把導致長期資本損失的風險(但不是短期行情上的損失)降到絕對最低的程度;以及
c. 我的妻子、孩子和我自己將把幾乎整個身家投入這個合夥事業。

感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

1 In no sense is any rate of return guaranteed to partners. Partners who withdraw one-half of 1% monthly are doing just that—withdrawing. If we earn more than 6% per annum over a period of years, the withdrawals will be covered by earnings and the principal will increase. If we don't earn 6%, the monthly payments are partially or wholly a return of capital.

2 Any year in which we fail to achieve at least a plus 6% performance will be followed by a year when partners receiving monthly payments will find those payments lowered.

3 Whenever we talk of yearly gains or losses, we are talking about market values; that is, how we stand with assets valued at market at year-end against how we stood on the same basis at the beginning of the year. This may bear very little relationship to the realized results for tax purposes in a given year.

4 Whether we do a good job or a poor job is not to be measured by whether we are plus or minus for the year. It is instead to be measured against the general experience in securities as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, leading investment companies, etc. If our record is better than that of these yardsticks, we consider it a good year whether we are plus or minus. If we do poorer, we deserve the tomatoes.

5 While I much prefer a five-year test, I feel three years is an absolute minimum for judging performance. It is a certainty that we will have years when the partnership performance is poorer, perhaps substantially so, than the Dow. If any three-year or longer period produces poor results, we all should start looking around for other places to have our money. An exception to the latter statement would be three years covering a speculative explosion in a bull market.

6 I am not in the business of predicting general stock market or business fluctuations. If you think I can do this, or think it is essential to an investment program, you should not be in the partnership.

7 I cannot promise results to partners. What I can and do promise is that:
a. Our investments will be chosen on the basis of value, not popularity;
b. That we will attempt to bring risk of permanent capital loss (not short-term quotational loss) to an absolute minimum by obtaining a wide margin of safety in each commitment and a diversity of commitments; and
c. My wife, children and I will have virtually our entire net worth invested in the partnership.

2
巴菲特給每個想要投資的人一份基本準則,並且在拿到支票前,要他們謹慎研讀每項原則。然後每隔大約6個月寄信給他們,將最新發展告知合作夥伴。感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
2
Buffett gave each person who wanted to invest a copy of the ground rules and carefully went through each point before he would take their checks. He then sent out letters every six months or so updating his partners on latest developments.感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
3
在整個合夥事業存在的期間,巴菲特幾乎取得24%年增長率,遠遠超出同一時期道瓊的成長。同樣令人驚訝的是巴菲特在那段期間從未有過績效下降的一年。感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
3
For the entire period the partnership existed, Buffett compounded the partner's capital at almost a 24 percent annual rate, significantly outperforming the growth of the Dow over that same period. And equally impressive was the fact Buffett never had a down year during that period.感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

關鍵思惟


「在那個情況下,如果我有100萬美元,或是1000萬美元拿來操作,我會全數投資下去。我曾經達到的最高報酬率是在1950年代,我擊倒了道瓊。你應該看看那個數字。但是當時我只投資了幾毛錢。那是一個巨大的結構性優勢,不用很多錢。我覺得我應該可以用一年100萬美元為你賺到50%。不,我知道我可以,我保證做到。」──華倫.巴菲特,商業周刊,1999感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「用合理的價錢購買一家很棒的公司,比起用很漂亮的價錢購買一家不上不下的公司好多了。查理很早就懂這個道理;我稍晚才學到。但是現在,在購買公司或普通股股票時,我們會找第一流的企業,搭配第一流的管理。」──華倫.巴菲特,1988感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「我認為人們如果一生中只有10次購買股票的機會會更好。你知道這會發生什麼情況嗎?他們會確保每次購買的都是好股票。他們會在購買前做一大堆功課。你不必靠許多次4倍的成長機會致富。你根本不必做太多事,是環境讓你覺得你必須一直做點什麼。」──華倫.巴菲特,2007感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「葛拉漢總是說投資最好的時機像是在做事業,而從事事業最好的時機像是在做投資。巴菲特不只證實了這個想法,而且更進一步破除這兩個術語之間的區別。他認為股票只不過是股東擁有其在公司內持有部分資產的管道。這些資產本身可以買賣,因此可以互相取代。資產只是一種特定的資本形式──公司和投資者同樣有責任,要盡可能以最高及最有成效的方式維持其資本的狀況。」──傑瑞米.C.米勒感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「真正的投資人幾乎不會被迫出售他們的股票,在任何時候,他都可以隨意地忽視目前的報價。只有在符合他預設的程度時,才必須留意及採取行動,沒別的了。因此,允許自己對持有的股份被不合理的市場下滑自亂陣腳或過度擔心的投資人,反而會把基本優勢轉變為基本劣勢。對那個人來說,如果他的股票根本沒有市場報價會更好,因為他會倖免於別人的錯誤判斷導致精神上的痛苦。」──班傑明.葛拉漢感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

Key Thoughts


"If I was running $1 million, or $10 million for that matter, I'd be fully invested. The highest rates of return I've ever achieved were in the 1950's. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts back then. It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that." – Warren Buffett, BusinessWeek, 1999感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"It's better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Charlie understood this early; I was a slow learner. But now, when buying companies or common stocks, we look for first-class businesses accompanied by first-class managements." – Warren Buffett, 1988感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"I think people would be better off if they only had 10 opportunities to buy stocks throughout their lifetime. You know what would happen? They would make sure that each buy was a good one. They would do lots and lots of research before they made the buy. You don't have to have many 4X growth opportunities to get rich. You don't need to do too much, but the environment makes you feel like you need to do something all the time." – Warren Buffett, 2007感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"Graham always said that investing is done best when it's most businesslike and business is done best when it's most investment-like. Buffett not only exemplifies this idea, but he also furthers it by tearing down the distinction between the two terms. He sees equities as simply the conduit through which shareholders literally own their portion of the assets held within a corporation. The assets themselves can be bought or sold and are therefore fungible. Assets are simply a form of capital in a given state—it's the corporation's and the investor's responsibility alike to maintain the state of their capital in the highest and most productive form possible." – Jeremy C. Miller感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgment." – Benjamin Graham感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。


Chapter 2

基礎原則

感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

華倫.巴菲特原始的基本準則闡明了合夥事業將圍繞5 個一般或基礎原則運作:




感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

Chapter 2

Foundation rules

感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。

Warren Buffett's original ground rules articulated five general or foundation rules around which the partnership would operate:




感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
原則 1 市場先生和短期股票價格

Rule 1 Mr. Market and short-term stock prices

4
華倫.巴菲特在哥倫比亞商學院的老師是班傑明.葛拉漢──現在被視為實際發明了證券分析規則的人。葛拉漢的著作《智慧型股票投資人》是第一本把股市投資從黑暗藝術變成真正專業的書籍。感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
4
Warren Buffett's teacher at Columbia Business School was Benjamin Graham – now considered to be the person who practically invented the discipline of securities analysis. Graham's book The Intelligent Investor was one of the first which transformed stock market investing from a dark art into a real profession.感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護,並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。



以下內容僅限《大師輕鬆讀》網路版訂戶瀏覽。
若您已購買方案,請登入瀏覽。