| 第1章 |
三大錯誤
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
商業決策中最常出現的三大錯誤為：
1．使用容易失敗的策略。
2．過早下承諾。
3．企圖合理化錯誤的投資。
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
| Chapter 1 |
The Three Blunders
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
The three blunders which are made most frequently in commercial decisions are:
1．The use of failure-prone tactics.
2．Making premature commitments.
3．Attempting to justify a bad investment.
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
人們很容易犯這些錯誤。為了證明這點，我們蒐集與分析橫跨20年的400項企業決策，結果發現在200個失敗的決策中，至少都包含一種錯誤。本分析對象僅限於公開的企業決策。
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。It's very easy for people to make these blunders. To illustrate that fact, when 400 business decisions were collected and analyzed over a 20-year period, it was found these three blunders had resulted in bad decisions being made in 50-percent of these cases. And this analysis was limited to decisions which were publically discussed.
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「失敗突顯出錯誤。這些錯誤說明了決策如何出錯、為何出錯、如何改變決策流程便能提升成功機率的精闢觀點。你經常得面對成堆『棘手的決策』，必須透過改變顧客、市場、通路、競爭與合作優勢、聯盟、技巧與能力、獲利來源、組織方法以及公司形象，作出重要選擇，使組織順利運作。這些決定具有模糊、不確定與衝突性。採取的行動具有模糊的特性，讓決策者只挑出一種論點，並使用模糊的論點來支持其觀點。主事者對行動、因應方式及預期結果的歧議與誤解，導致了衝突紛爭。當決策者沒能管理模糊與不確定性，或者衝突爆發時，棘手的決策可能變成一場災難！」──納特
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「災難會發生，必然有一連串事件先產生，就像錯誤佈下了陷阱，而陷阱釀成了失敗。使用差勁的決策作法、倉促下判斷、或誤用可用資源，這些錯誤會將不疑有他的經理人，朝困住他的七大陷阱走去。當決策者未能權衡論點、忽略人們的利益與承諾、任由組織維持不明確的方向、限制尋找解決方法的範圍、誤用評量標準、忽略道德問題、未能深思決定，或無法學到何種決策會成功或失敗時，就已設下失敗的陷阱。一旦主管被上述任何一種陷阱逮到，他就很可能作出導致失敗的錯誤決策。」──納特
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
「當主管做到下列事項，就會提升決策的成功機率：探詢發掘潛在憂慮、採取行動步驟管理可能的政治與社會阻力、找出欲達到的成效、廣泛蒐尋、鼓勵創新、估計預期成效所帶來的效益，與實現的風險為何。在主管能從決策中有所學習前，必須先革除組織裡不良的誘因，並創造雙贏的環境。」──納特
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。 |
"Debacles highlight blunders. They offer insights into how a decision can go wrong, why it went wrong, and what changes in decision-making practices could improve the chance of success. There are always loads of‘tough decisions’── frequently occurring and important choices made to keep an organization on course by altering customers, markets, channels, competitive and collaborative advantages, alliances, skills and competencies, sources of revenue, ways to organize and company image. Such decisions have ambiguity, uncertainty and conflict. Ambiguity about the action to take prompts decision makers to stake out different claims about what to do and to use fuzzy arguments to support their views. Disagreements and misunderstandings among key people about the concerns provoking action, what to do to respond, and the forecasts can lead to conflict. A tough decision can turn into a debacle when ambiguity and uncertainty go unmanaged or conflict erupts." — Paul Nutt
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"Debacles follow a chain of events that unfold as blunders create traps and traps bring about failure. The blunders of using poor decision-making practices, rushing to judgement, or misusing available resources point unsuspecting managers towards seven traps that can ensnare them. Traps are set when decision makers fail to reconcile claims, overlook people's interests and commitments, leave directions vague, limit their search for remedies, misuse evaluations, ignore ethical questions, or fail to reflect on decisions to learn what works and what doesn't. When caught in any of these traps, managers are apt to make a bad call that can become a debacle." — Paul Nutt
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。
"The prospect of success improves when managers probe to uncover hidden concerns, take steps to manage the social and political forces that can block them, identify the results they want, search widely and encourage innovation, and estimate benefits linked to expected results along with the risks in realizing them. Perverse incentives must be rooted out and a win-win environment created before learning can occur." — Paul Nutt
感謝您對大師輕鬆讀的愛護，並且全力支持您合理地使用我們為您精心編製的內容。希望未來可以提供您更方便更友善的服務。 |
